So many great lines.
Is it strange that a 62 year old man is still quoting lines from a movie that was in theaters 46 years ago? Perhaps.
And what makes me think about this historic wager almost 5 decades later?
Betting
This bet was funny and outrageous in 1980. We all laughed at how ridiculous it was to bet on something so mundane.
Today, you can make that bet.
Over the past few years, sports betting has gotten mainstream. In the good old days, you had to walk down the block, know the special knock, and place your bet with Vito.
Today, you can download an app from the app store, link your bank account and empty it out with just a few clicks.
It’s all legal, easy and fun…at least until we realize we’re playing with real money.
Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are huge. And while you may not have heard of them, you’ve probably heard of Fanduel. I saw their ads at the Superbowl – everywhere. Luckily, the ads provide an 800 number to call if you have a gambling problem, so it’s all safe.
Fanduel let’s us bet on the outcome of the game, who will score first, or how many fumbles will occur in the first half. Kalshi and Polymarket and their ilk provide the same service for world events and just about anything we can think of.
Prediction Markets
Here’s what Grok told me.
We can now bet on whether Jesus Christ will return in 2026, and whether Trump will acquire Greenland. Note that the Trump/Greenland one is real, but it is unclear whether Trump will personally acquire Greenland or whether he will do so on behalf of the US.
So What
I used to just laugh these off.
If people want to set a few dollars on fire, or maybe make some quick bucks on an outrageous bet, what’s the harm?
But total volume of bets in February 2026 was about $22 billion. And that’s down a bit from January 2026.
That’s a lot of money. Some people are winning, some are losing, and the platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are taking a nice cut of the profits.
This is big business.
Insider Bets
A few months back, there were a number of highly-publicized sports scandals where players and coaches were involved in fudging outcomes. Sad, but given the rise of sports betting, we shouldn’t be surprised.
This has become even more problematic with the new platforms where we can bet on anything. There’s a huge opportunity to fudge the results.
Check out this headline.
or this
Stock Trading
There’s a lot of talk lately about stock trading in congress. Nancy Pelosi is the most talked about example. Her husband Paul has amassed a fortune by making well-timed bets on buying and selling companies, often times those same companies that his lovely wife regulates.
I can’t be too mad about the Pelosis. I read an article about their suspicious trades in Visa in 2012, took a look at the company, bought some shares and they’re up about 1,000%. Thanks Nanc!
And stock trading legislation has been bandied about since long before 2012. We never quite seem to get there. Perhaps because the legislation cuts off a potential cash cow for our elected officials.
But, we’re a step or 2 behind. Even if we ban stock trading, what’s to stop Nanc and her friends from betting on current events, over which they may have influence?
Wrap Up
Most important point here. Go back and re-watch Caddyshack. Bill Murray, Chevy Chase, Rodney Dangerfield, Ted Knight…it’s a classic.
The rest is a bit disheartening.
First off, where is this $20 billion per month coming from? Granted some is illegal gambling moving to legal, but this is essentially a new industry. Everyday dudes like us are taking money from groceries, rent, or savings and using it for bets…right? That’s alarming.
And the potential for “insider trading” where people who have inside knowledge can place a bet against you or me seems wrong. If Tony and I want to wager on whether Trump takes Greenland while we’re having a friendly lunch, that’s one thing, but if a member of the cabinet wants to get in on the action…
If I’m making a bet on Kalshi and Monkey123 decides to take that action, I don’t know if I’m betting against Tony or the secretary of defense.
The good news is that the AI driven robots will be taking over any day now. The bad news is that their AI has been trained on information produced by the same folks who have brought us stock trading in congress, Kalshi, and the billions of tweets, podcasts and YouTube videos. Which means they’ll know how to adjust the ignition timing on a ’72 Pinto, but they’ll have been shaped by lots of not-so-cool info.
Good luck!