Today, with a government shut-down looming (and we still have tariff uncertainty, wars in the Ukraine and Gaza, and other assorted problems) the market continues to rise and today I read that:
in the Daily Upside.
In the almost 2 years that I’ve been posting here, I’ve spent a bit more time paying attention to analyst opinions and market swings.
A Bit More?
How much is a bit more? I went from completely ignoring them to reading, listening and writing about how we need to take them with a large grain of salt.
On February 26,2025, in my post Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is, I wrote about my optimism in the US economy and I decided to back it up with a $100 purchase of an S&P 500 index fund.
From that post:
In early 2025, ah, it seems so long ago, The big banks and investment firms were telling us the market was overvalued and that we should expect muted returns over the next 10 years – yup, they actually projected slowing growth for 10 years.
And Then…
I posted a 2 week update to my Put Your Money… post after the market tanked.
The key thought
And of course CNBC and the rest of the gang were now even more pessimistic.
Today
And now here we are on September 30, 2025. The S&P 500 is up 13.42% year to date.
Where are those muted returns people now?
Wrap Up
Today’s point is simple.
Don’t listen to analysts.
Well, not exactly. I continue to read their company research reports. I like to see their analysis of a company, its earnings and how it compares to other companies in the industry. I appreciate that these analysts take the time to do the hard work and summarize the results for me. Thank you!
But, I skip over the recommendations and analyst outlook.
In just about every instance, their forward looking assessment tells us exactly what happened in the recent past.
The S&P 500 had a big bump after the presidential election, and then was pretty flat into February. The very recent flatness seemed to convince market pundits that slowing growth was coming for the next 10 years.
Liberation day tariffs tanked the market and the experts patted theselves on the back.
Then we decided we didn’t really understand the whole tariff thing and the market took off. The S&P 500 is up 33.68% since the Liberation day lows. And the experts have been fairly quiet, until now.
In their unbridled enthusiasm about these gains (in the past), market experts now see 8% gains. According to the Daily Upside, they’ve raised their targets.
I wrote a similar post recently called Time Matters. I talked about the struggles of Old Dominion Freight Lines and how analysts had turned on the company.
No one knows. Not you, not me and especially not the experts.
And the danger is that we listen and stay on the sidelines or we take money out of the market when we should be investing, or we are piling in at just the wrong time.
Here’s the big secret. The S&P 500 has returned on average 10% per year with dividends reinvested over the last 100 years. Read more here. That’s a pretty good indicator that it will continue to build wealth.
And nobody can predict when it will spike 30% or when it will drop 30% in a year. Some have done it once and are then they’re quoted for the next 10 years every time there is a market move. But very few have predicted successfully more than once.
So, don’t try and time the market. Buy regularly and hold.
Buy today and the market tanks 30%. That’s a bummer, but 20 years from now, I bet you won’t remember that pullback.
Good luck and invest for the long-term regardless of what the experts say.